Well, the world’s are now in action at Kiel, a huge fleet has turned out for this championship race with at least 20 top contenders all capable of carrying off the trophy. But so much will depend on the weather this week.
If the wind stays up watch out for Mike Holt, perhaps the best “big-wind” sailor in the fleet today, he works the boat really hard and focuses on incredible speed to keep him out of trouble. Although not a seasoned Olympian, he just won the British 505 nationals and narrowly missed being world champion in both San Francisco and Hamilton Island on discards. If the stays up, he is going to put some serious numbers on the board, letting him throw some of the poor performances.
Likewise Howie Hamlin and Wolfgang Hunger, all perform well in big weather, so by the looks of the forecast, the wind will remain in for the 1st half of the event it will be interesting to see how they are set for the lay-day.
The fleet is dominated by the German’s so I would expect by the end of the week for them to hold around 7 of the top-positions and if the wind goes soft, they will use their incredible experience to mark some numbers on the board.
The we have Jan Saugmann, in his new boat, with a DNF in the 1st race and a 13th in the second, the twice world champion may find it hard to recover from this position to come within the top 10. Andy Smith (GB) is a newcomer and with Ian Pinnell, always putting numbers in I have an outline feeling that if the fleet goes “Olympic” with variable racing conditions these two – fireball and 505 world champions will put some serious markers on the board. Andy looks like a tactical wizard, being able to manipulate himself through difficult and big fleets.
Nicholas is a class act and with a 4th in the second race can afford to throw the 1st, interestingly only 4 of the top 10 have consistent numbers and this early on, you need to score some 1st to be able to throw out the bad numbers that some of them have.
Today’s racing (if held) will be interesting to see who puts some good numbers in. But if the wind stays high and “Holty” could dominate really early giving him that break later in the week, however his all-round speed is much improved this year with a change of loft.
Watch-out it will be interesting, but as I say the 1st 10 around the 1st windward mark will really be the players, so getting a good start with speed, the top mark will really establish the leaders for the rest of the race.