Who’s going to win the 505 Worlds?

As I predicted on August 17th after the 1st two races, the final day will be a thriller, with the key players from the 1st day still in the race for the final trophy.

Only 4 people can win Mike Holt leading with his incredible heavy weather boat speed and improving all-round condition sailing or the tactics from the Olympic and seasoned multi-class experts like Andy Smith, Peter Nicholas and Ian Pinnell.

In reality Ian has to post a 1st, not unrealistic with two 2nd places but in reality I cannot see him taking the world crown for a 2nd time. However, he is consistent, but Mike will have to come lower than 10th and not let the others in front, he has little control over his own destiny in reality.

So it’s down to Holty, Andy and Peter. Tactically Andy has to sit on Mike Holt and force him down the fleet just like Peter Colclough and Krister Bergstrom of old, pushing Mike down to 12th position or lower, but also watching out for Peter Nicholas, so this is not an easy task, also Andy has only come in front of Mike twice out of the 6 races, so it’s a 2:1 ratio to Mike so far. It’s not a done job by any means, while Peter has beaten Mike equally 3:3. So it’s a tough one to call.

Mike has to just drag race to the front, if he can get clean air it’s going to be difficult to sit on him up front in the fleet, with the possible breakaways, you need the cover and restrictions of other boats to keep a hold and cover on faster boats. If he stays in front of Andy and Peter he will be good for his first victory and what a victory that would be!

What is more impactful, it that there will be no German winner on home soil, at the beginning it could have been a white-wash, with the talent in this German team, but I think the high winds have just knocked on the door of there all-round game which is strong. I predicted that they would get 7 of the top 10 places, so I was wrong they will see at least 6 to once again dominate the 505 fleet numbers.

So who will it be as a winner for 2014, I think Andy Smith has shown incredible consistency and for this reason and his tactical capabilities he could just turn August 22nd into his first world championship crown.

On a personal note, nobody is more deserving of this title than Mike Holt, without Mike the class would be a shadow of itself a dedicated 505 sailor from a young age and one of the nicest people you will ever meet, I would love him to raise this trophy high above his head to justify the presence he has made in this class and his dedication to the sport over many many years.

The best of luck to all 4 of you!

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The SAP International 505 World’s at Kiel, Germany – who will win!

Well, the world’s are now in action at Kiel, a huge fleet has turned out for this championship race with at least 20 top contenders all capable of carrying off the trophy. But so much will depend on the weather this week.

If the wind stays up watch out for Mike Holt, perhaps the best “big-wind” sailor in the fleet today, he works the boat really hard and focuses on incredible speed to keep him out of trouble. Although not a seasoned Olympian, he just won the British 505 nationals and narrowly missed being world champion in both San Francisco and Hamilton Island on discards. If the stays up, he is going to put some serious numbers on the board, letting him throw some of the poor performances.

Likewise Howie Hamlin and Wolfgang Hunger, all perform well in big weather, so by the looks of the forecast, the wind will remain in for the 1st half of the event it will be interesting to see how they are set for the lay-day.

The fleet is dominated by the German’s so I would expect by the end of the week for them to hold around 7 of the top-positions and if the wind goes soft, they will use their incredible experience to mark some numbers on the board.

The we have Jan Saugmann, in his new boat, with a DNF in the 1st race and a 13th in the second, the twice world champion may find it hard to recover from this position to come within the top 10. Andy Smith (GB) is a newcomer and with Ian Pinnell, always putting numbers in I have an outline feeling that if the fleet goes “Olympic” with variable racing conditions these two – fireball and 505 world champions will put some serious markers on the board. Andy looks like a tactical wizard, being able to manipulate himself through difficult and big fleets.

Nicholas is a class act and with a 4th in the second race can afford to throw the 1st, interestingly only 4 of the top 10 have consistent numbers and this early on, you need to score some 1st to be able to throw out the bad numbers that some of them have.

Today’s racing (if held) will be interesting to see who puts some good numbers in. But if the wind stays high and “Holty” could dominate really early giving him that break later in the week, however his all-round speed is much improved this year with a change of loft.

Watch-out it will be interesting, but as I say the 1st 10 around the 1st windward mark will really be the players, so getting a good start with speed, the top mark will really establish the leaders for the rest of the race.